95% bed occupancy !!!!....

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95% bed occupancy !!!!....

Postby richard steyn » Sun Jan 02, 2011 11:20 pm

Erlang --> relationship between resource utilisation and cancellations not linear.

In a system in which the demand and capacity are varying, until the utilisation is at 82% to 85%, access to the system is likely guaranteed.

As the resource utilisation increases beyond 82% to 85% the number of cancellations increases exponentially.

It is extremely difficult if not impossible in practice to achieve 95% utilisation of resources with no cancellations in the presence of varying demand and capacity. [The exception would be if you could truly achieve an agile system that can immediately flex in response to the variation.]

Sprivulus et al. demonstrated that running systems at 95% bed occupancy increases in-hospital mortality above the expected mortality.

(At this time of financial constraint) let us not use utilisation as a marker of efficiency (it isn't efficient or safe) but rather focus on achieving output.

Richard
richard steyn
 
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